Revision Update: The Executive: Cabinet Reshuffle in September 2012:
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Showing posts with label cameron. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cameron. Show all posts
Friday, 17 May 2013
Friday, 29 June 2012
Saturday, 9 June 2012
How effective is Parliament? Rebellions, backbenchers and the Coalition
Parliament has often been characterised as being slaves to government. One theory is that MPs can be cajoled into votingin line with whatever their party leadership wants though loyalty, ideology, desire for promotion and the whipsystem. However, the coalition has seen a rise in the numer of 'rebellions' (where MPs vote against their party leadership). Rebellions don't have to succeed but just the existence of MPs voting against their party line suggests an assertiveness often absent in the era of Thatcher and Blair.
Why?
Coalition ideological differences - the more extreme wings of the coalition parties (right of the Tories, left of the LDs) were always likely to be unhappy with particular bits of coalition policy which cannot keep everyone happy.
That said, it should be remembered that the coalition does have a substantial majority. If the coalition government is weak then it is not because of lack of seats, just internal arguments.
The Bumper Book of Coalition Rebellions | Ballots & Bullets:
Full book here, but 20 key points here:
Why?
Coalition ideological differences - the more extreme wings of the coalition parties (right of the Tories, left of the LDs) were always likely to be unhappy with particular bits of coalition policy which cannot keep everyone happy.
That said, it should be remembered that the coalition does have a substantial majority. If the coalition government is weak then it is not because of lack of seats, just internal arguments.
The Bumper Book of Coalition Rebellions | Ballots & Bullets:
Full book here, but 20 key points here:
We’ve been producing end-of-session reports detailing the rebellions of government backbenchers for several years now – but we’ve never had to produce one quite so large before. The Bumper Book of Coalition Rebellions is available free of charge in pdf format (at the end of this post). It details every rebellion and every rebel. How much more fun could you want on a miserable Tuesday morning? But in case you don’t have the time, or the inclination, to look at more than 100 pages of info, here’s 20 key points about the behaviour of Coalition MPs in the last session.
1. The last session saw 239 rebellions by Coalition MPs. This is higher than the number of rebellions by government MPs in any other session in the post-war era. Indeed, a figure of 239 is higher than in all but three entire post-war parliaments. And there were more rebellions in the 2010-12 session than in the period from 1945-1966 combined, taking in 21 years, six parliaments and six Prime Ministers.
2. In relative terms, measured as a percentage of the divisions in the session, there were rebellions by coalition MPs in 44% of divisions – also without precedent in the post-war era. By party, Conservative MPs broke ranks in 28% of votes, Lib Dems MPs have done so in 24%.
3. Even these separate figures are very high by comparison with historic behaviour of government backbenchers. The Conservative figure is higher than the rate of rebellion by government MPs in all but eight post-war sessions. The Lib Dem rate of 24% is higher than that seen by government MPs in all but eleven post-war sessions.
4. And compared with behaviour in other first sessions, the differences with this session are even more obvious, especially when compared to the first sessions of parliaments following a change in government. Between 1945 and 1997, the six sessions immediately after a change in government saw rates of rebellion between zero (1964) and 6% (1979). The current rate of rebellion is therefore more than seven times what had until now been the post-war peak for a first session after a change of government.
5. A total of 153 Coalition MPs have voted against their whip thus far. Most (119) of these are Conservatives, but this is not surprising, given that there have been more Conservative rebellions and there are anyway more Conservative MPs.
6. Eight out of the top ten Coalition rebels are Conservatives. The most rebellious Liberal Democrat MP is Mike Hancock, whose 44 rebellious votes place him sixth. Andrew George is the only other Lib Dem MP in the top ten.
7. As a percentage of the total number of votes, the rates of rebellion of the most rebellious MPs are very high in relative terms: Philip Hollobone has been rebelling at a rate of roughly one rebellion in every five votes. This is a much higher rate than, say, Jeremy Corbyn or Dennis Skinner, during the Blair or Brown premierships, and represents a serious fracture from the party leadership.
8. What will especially concern the government whips is the behaviour of their newer MPs. Of the 119 Conservative rebels, 71 (or six in ten) are from the new intake, and between them the newbie Tory rebels have cast a whopping 401 rebellious votes.
9. Whilst numerically smaller, rebellion is much more widespread amongst the Lib Dems. Whereas nearly one in four (39%) of Conservative MPs have rebelled, a total of 34 Lib Dems, or 60% of the parliamentary party, have now done so.
10. The largest rebellion came in October 2011, over a motion calling for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU. A total of 82 Coalition MPs (81 of them Conservatives) defied a three-line whip to vote for the motion, another 14-19 abstaining. It was not the largest backbench revolt since 1945, but it was one of the largest, topped on the Conservative side only a handful of revolts over gun control at the fag-end of the Major government. It was also the largest rebellion on the issue of Europe of the post-war era.
11. The largest Lib Dem rebellion came in December 2010 over the issue of university tuition fees. Twenty-one Liberal Democrat MPs voted against their whips, a further five Lib Dem MPs abstaining. It was the largest Liberal Democrat rebellion since the formation of the merged party in 1988-89 and as a proportion of the parliamentary party constituted a larger rebellion than did the Conservative rebellion over the European referendum.
12. Yet although the frequency of rebellions is alarmingly high, the average rebellion is small, comprising just seven MPs. (The average Conservative rebellion is eight MPs, the average Liberal Democrat revolt is even lower at just three MPs). This is one of the reasons why the government’s majority has not yet been seriously threatened as a result of a rebellion.
13. The other reason is that these two groups of rebels rarely coalesce. Almost half of rebellions (46%) have seen Conservative MPs rebel alone; just over a third (36%) have seen Lib Dem MPs rebel alone, and less than one in five (18%) have seen a rebellion by both Lib Dem and Conservative MPs.
14. This is because the two groups generally rebel on very different issues. Just over seven in ten (71%) of Lib Dem rebellions have been on social policy (broadly defined). But nearly half (49%) of Conservative rebellions are on constitutional policy (broadly defined). Of this last category, a big chunk (nearly one in five of all Conservative rebellions) has been on Europe (18%), rebellions which are more than double the average size of all Conservative rebellions.
15. The size of the Government’s majority is often not appreciated. Even its formal majority of 76 is substantial.
16. In reality, because of divisions in which Labour vote with the government or abstain, the average majority in practice has been an even larger 123. In the majority of votes (411), Labour oppose the government, and when they do the government’s average majority has been 86. But when Labour abstain (50 votes), the majority averages 268; and when Labour support the government (30 votes), the average majority rises to 392.
17. There are plenty of issues on which 39 Conservative MPs might rebel, but there are fewer on which the Labour party would be willing to join them. Overall, 21% of coalition rebellions occurred when Labour was not voting against the government – and when there was therefore no chance of a defeat. But that figures rises to 31% of Conservative rebellions.
18. The hurdles in overturning a large in-built Coalition majority are even more acute for the Liberal Democrats. Lib Dem rebellions were more likely to take place when Labour was opposing the government, but because their backbench MPs number only 35, even if all of them vote against the Government with all the Opposition MPs, that would still not be enough to defeat the Government.
19. Parliamentary ambushes (like the one that caused the Coalition’s only defeat in December 2011) aside, for the Government’s majority to fall much below 50, both Conservative and Liberal Democrats need to rebel in decent numbers, with the support of the Labour frontbench and the minor parties. This has happened rarely since May 2010, and the Government’s majority has only fallen below 50 on only 22 occasions in its first 24 months in power.
20. But the Coalition’s two wobbly wings will require careful handling – with plenty of issues in the immediate future that will ensure continued high levels of Coalition dissent.
Tuesday, 22 May 2012
Who's in the Coalition Cabinet?
This is a great resource for seeing who's who in the coalition cabinet.
Sunday, 22 April 2012
Unit 1 and Unit 2 revision: House of Lords and Referendums
The issue over the last couple of weeks boils down to three new developments:
- The threat of Tory resignations if Cameron pushes ahead with Clegg's proposals (80% elected etc.). Cameron is at odds with most of his own Tory MPs, as he says he's in favour of Lords reform, whilst they are largely against. Even some cabinet ministers are hinting that Lords reform could be a resignation issue. The other issue is whether or not Cameron should whip his Tory MPs into voting for Lords reform or whether it should be up to the individual MPs. Some say that around 80 Tory MPs will vote against the proposed reforms when the time comes to vote on legislation.
- The question of whether or not a referendum should be held over whether or not Clegg's proposals should be put into action. A parliamentary committee will report on Monday (23/4/12) that a referendum should be held on the issue. Many Tory MPs agree, hoping that most people can be persuaded that reform is necessary and expensive (like AV campaign). However, Miliband is also in favour of a referendum. Clegg says that the coalition already has a democratic mandate for Lords reform as it was in both coalition parties' manifestos before the last election, and therefore a referendum is not needed. Unit 1 retakers should take note of this referendum possibility.
- The issue of whether or not the coalition can survive it's disagreements over Lords reform. See this blog for a brief analysis...and here.
The three issues are interwoven.
What the coalition agreement says about Lords reform HERE.
This weekend has seen some excellent coverage in The Guardian and the Telegraph (as usual).
Guardian:
- Article on coalition splits over Lords reform
- Article on cabinet tensions
- Against reform article
- In favour of reform editorial
Telegraph:
- Article on Conservative party tensions over Lords reform.
- Article about junior ministers threatening to resign over Lords reform.
- Miliband gives his reasons for supporting a Lords reform referendum.
- Lib Dem Lord Oakeshott hits out at Tory MPs against Lords reform saying they should "grow up" and remember the coalition agreement.
Anyone hoping to get a decent Unit 2 (or Unit 1 retake) grade will be reading these articles and taking notes on arguments and controversies, party positions and splits within parties.
Monday, 26 March 2012
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