Sunday, 15 January 2012

Constitutional reform or the break up of the UK?



From the Tutor 2 U Politics Blog:


The big constiutional issue of the year looks firmly set to be that of Scottish devoltion/independence and the ultimate issue of the fate of the Union.  Quite what was David Cameron doing in lighting the toucpaper for a debate on Scotland’s future which could end with the United Kingdom splitting apart?  Initially it seemed a masterstroke catching Salmond on the hop, but it seems to have backfired.  Salmond in some eyes is a ‘political genius’ but does that make him right on the issue?  Very briefly here is a snapshot of a few relevent articles:

What Alex Salmond calls independence is really the break-up of the United Kingdom.
As Alex Salmond makes hay haggling over process points for a referendum on Scottish independence, we risk losing sight of the big picture. Mr Salmond may see crude political capital in casting the debate as Scots versus English, but the referendum will define the constitutional architecture for the United Kingdom as a whole.
Scotland’s voters will be asked to make a political decision in its referendum on independence, but it will be a decision coloured inevitably by economics – or at least economic perceptions, for the long-term economic impact of independence is far from clear. But such is the nature of politics that economic arguments will be used by both sides to support their case.
Alex Salmond, the ebullient leader of the Scottish National party, was in his element this week, doing what even his foes concede he does best: hogging the centre of the political stage, draping himself in history and arguing the case for independence that would break up the United Kingdom.

Only a start…...

Friday, 16 December 2011

By-election December 2011

Feltham and Heston by-election

Feltham and Heston byelection: Labour wins, but turnout tumbles CLICK HERE.

Wednesday, 14 December 2011

Belgium's relief, Belgium's woe

The horrific events in Belgium are a test for their new PM, Elio Di RupoBelgium has finally got a government (6 party coalition) after post election coalition deal talks that lasted 541 days! The election was June 13 2010 and the new govt was sworn in on Dec 6th 2011.

Is this a result of Belgium's use of PR (open list system)?  Well, this is unusually long period for talks -  a world record and Belgium is historically much quicker at forming coalitions.  Furthermore, it should be said that other countries like Germany (which uses the hybrid FPTP/PR system, AMS) usually form their coalitions much quicker. Ultimately the sticking points in the coalition talks were over the use of language in Belgium (Flemish/Dutch vs. French Walloon). So, it's unfair to say it's all the fault of PR. Nevertheless, the formation of coalitions can be lengthy and destabilising.

Would FPTP have helped? Would it have given a winner's bonus to the biggest single party? The answer is probably not by enough to avoid the need for a coalition. Remember FPTP only tends to do that when there are two clearly dominant parties. The vote for parties in Belgium in 2010 was along the lines of 17%, 14%, 11%, 9%, 9%, 9%, 7%, 5%, 5%, 5%, with a few smaller parties added in. So for the leading party to have won under FPTP in Belgium in 2010, it would have to enjoy a particularly favourable constituency system to have avoided the need for a coalition. Even if the leading party had somehow managed to form a single party governement, would that have been fair? Might the presence of a single party government for which less than one in five people voted, have been even more destabilising than a 6 party coalition?

In light of this, it could be argued that FPTP works best in countries where 2 parties clearly dominate . The question is, does the UK fit that description for the last few elections? Might it go back to a 2 party system at the next election? Might my scheme of work for next year have to be completely altered because of Nick Clegg!!!??? I didn't think this post on Belgian politics would be this long when I started it. If you're still reading, here's a tip: Rhetorical questions - fair game for bloggers/teachers, no good for essays.